Curse

Rory The Warlord · Jan 03, 2008, 02:05 AM // 02:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

On average how long does your run last guys? I am assuming most of you are doing the Strength of the Snow quest?

Pol

8 minutes. Give or take 30 seconds.

Ogrefist Hellchaser · Jan 03, 2008, 02:06 AM // 02:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

On average how long does your run last guys? I am assuming most of you are doing the Strength of the Snow quest?

Pol

About 7 mins.. i run there and help out.. if you dont help out it could last 15?

oh and btw im new so i dont know how to quote more than 1 person sum1 above this post said: Maybe you dont need the quest?

You do need the quests(Strength of Snow or Straight to the Heart) because bears drop only from the Wintersday Chest.. the chest found in the normal dungeon is called Chest of Wintersday Past... also Gaile Gray told this a few posts back

Witchblade · Jan 03, 2008, 02:07 AM // 02:07

even if it were in Past version.. you only get 2 items tops and it's longer
damn ^^

Saelis Scarfang · Jan 03, 2008, 02:08 AM // 02:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leslie

wonder if you need to have killed ursula the white in the kamadan grenth quests first to be eligible to obtain the mini ursula? :/

that'd be sadistic if you had to kill the real bear to get a minibear!

Selket · Jan 03, 2008, 02:08 AM // 02:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leslie

wonder if you need to have killed ursula the white in the kamadan grenth quests first to be eligible to obtain the mini ursula? :/

that would mean witchblade would've probably gotten another.

xshadowwolfx · Jan 03, 2008, 02:08 AM // 02:08

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

Tom Stone · Jan 03, 2008, 02:10 AM // 02:10

Ive done it in less than 6 mins on warrior - using speed boost and avoiding all grentchies on the way - it is possible, if there are no elementalists on the way...

KamikazeChicken · Jan 03, 2008, 02:10 AM // 02:10

I hope anet prolongs the stay of the Rift Warden to allow people ample time to try for a polar bear. It'd be a shame if everyone was forced to wait 'til next year. o.o

Lil Mystique · Jan 03, 2008, 02:10 AM // 02:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

Did you count the Euro, China, Japan, etc. servers?

Witchblade · Jan 03, 2008, 02:10 AM // 02:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

sometimes snowmen handle the fight faster, you can also help during the first wave if you hide quickly after that

Ogrefist Hellchaser · Jan 03, 2008, 02:11 AM // 02:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

Yup that and the evertrusty spammin qeqeqeqeqeqeqeqeeeqeq while in speedboost ensures you will never get hit

Polgara Val · Jan 03, 2008, 02:12 AM // 02:12

I was thinking about using speedboosts, but i average around 7 min per run so dont know

azizul1975 · Jan 03, 2008, 02:13 AM // 02:13

like someone said above...be in private palace...film your moment with the bear... buy a domain..put the film on the domain... publish the link...see it goes to rank 6 google pagerank in few days.... then sell it..make money...$$$$$....

Celestial_Kitsune · Jan 03, 2008, 02:14 AM // 02:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

Given 250,000 opened chest the outcomes are as follows:

Probability of a drop - Mean number of drops - Standard Deviation

0.001 - 250 - 15.8
0.0001 - 25 - 5.0
0.00001 - 2.5 - 1.6

Do not worry people...

"The winner of the annual Wintersday battle between Grenth and Dwayna has been announced: Grenth, God of Death and Ice, was declared overall victor of the nine individual face-offs that took place on Wintersday. This means that winter will linger for just a while longer in Tyria and Elona.

Through Noon PST (20:00 GMT) on Thursday, January 11, 2007, players can continue to compete in the Snowball Arena, farm the hell out of the holiday quests trying to get a polar bear, and dodge Grentchies in Kamadan and Lion's Arch.

The extension of the Wintersday Festival will afford players everywhere the opportunity to join the event, for many of them had extreme lag and disconnects.

Enjoy the Winterday Festivities for a few days longer, and we wish you all the best in the New Year!"

Polgara Val · Jan 03, 2008, 02:14 AM // 02:14

If someone made money with an animated 3D mesh then i think its time i changed proffession, no pun intended

cellardweller · Jan 03, 2008, 02:14 AM // 02:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogrefist Hellchaser

I'm sure i read on guild wars.com that they were "proud to announce" that they crossed the 4 mil mark.... either way.. im gna farm this till the end of wintersday and longer.. 24 hours longer actually cuz then im gna get kicked from the server

i swear the second i logg off sum1 is gna get the bear on their first try

Run #61.... no bear
off to run #62

Word of advice - stay away from poker machines.

Ogrefist Hellchaser · Jan 03, 2008, 02:15 AM // 02:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

By your calculations 250,000 times 2 your saying 2 bears drop from each chest?!?! maybe SLIGHTLY off there

Lil Mystique · Jan 03, 2008, 02:17 AM // 02:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celestial_Kitsune

Given 250,000 opened chest the outcomes are as follows:

Probability of a drop - Mean number of drops - Standard Deviation

0.001 - 250 - 15.8
0.0001 - 25 - 5.0
0.00001 - 2.5 - 1.6

Do not worry people...

"The winner of the annual Wintersday battle between Grenth and Dwayna has been announced: Grenth, God of Death and Ice, was declared overall victor of the nine individual face-offs that took place on Wintersday. This means that winter will linger for just a while longer in Tyria and Elona.

Through Noon PST (20:00 GMT) on Thursday, January 11, 2007, players can continue to compete in the Snowball Arena, farm the hell out of the holiday quests trying to get a polar bear, and dodge Grentchies in Kamadan and Lion's Arch.

The extension of the Wintersday Festival will afford players everywhere the opportunity to join the event, for many of them had extreme lag and disconnects.

Enjoy the Winterday Festivities for a few days longer, and we wish you all the best in the New Year!"

Could you post a link please?

Witchblade · Jan 03, 2008, 02:17 AM // 02:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

If someone made money with an animated 3D mesh then i think its time i changed proffession, no pun intended

cant imagine the thing if an ebayer drops one

Celestial_Kitsune · Jan 03, 2008, 02:18 AM // 02:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil Mystique

Could you post a link please?

Read the text carefully and guess if it is legit lol